US Economy Expanding at 4% Growth Rate

US Economy Expanding at 4% Growth Rate

US Economy Expanding at 4% Growth Rate


Monday the latest data showed that the US economy is expanding at a 4% annualized rate in Q-3, that according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model following the release of the latest data on retail sales.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q-3 of  Y 2018 is 4.0% on 15 October, down from 4.2% on 10 October.

After Monday’s retail sales report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of Q-3 real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 3.6 to 3.3%

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, 17 October.

US retail sales rose a bit in September as a rebound in motor vehicle purchases was offset by the biggest drop in spending at restaurants and bars in nearly 2 years.

But other details of the report from the Commerce Department Monday were upbeat and suggested that consumer spending ended the third quarter with strong momentum, which should provide a boost to economic growth despite anticipated drags from weak exports and a struggling housing market.

The net result appears to be a fairly strong Quarter for consumer spending growth

Retail sales edged up 0.1% last month after a similar gainer in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales increasing 0.6% in September.

Retail sales in September rose 4.7% from a year ago.

Do not confuse the economy with the performance of the stock market.

Monday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA-89.44 at 25250.55, NAS Comp -66.15 at 7430.93, S&P 500 -16.34 at 2750.63

Volume:Trade on the NYSE came in at 825-M/shares exchanged

  • NAS Comp +7.6% YTD
  • S&P 500 +2.9% YTD
  • DJIA +2.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +1.1% YTD

HeffX-LTN’s US Major Stock Market Indexes Technical Analysis

Date Symbol Price Technical Analysis Support Resistance
15 October 2018 QQQ 172.21 Neutral (-0.23) 169.68 174.47
15 October 2018 DIA 252.34 Neutral (0.11) 251.60 253.61
15 October 2018 SPY 274.4 Bearish (-0.33) 273.90 277.57

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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