US Consumer Sentiment at 10 Yr Highs in July

US Consumer Sentiment at 10 Yr Highs in July

FLASH: “ Favorable trends in personal finances remained widespread,” the Director of the University of Michigan consumer survey (MSI), said in a statement. “These favorable financial expectations were supported by gains in household incomes and wealth.”

US consumer sentiment improved in July, holding close to the best level in more than 10% as more Americans grew optimistic about their future financial prospects.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index came in at 98.4 upfrom 98.2 in June, according to data released Friday that were about in line with forecasts. The gauge has held within a 2.8-pt range for the past 5 months. The expectations index climbed slightly while the gauge of current conditions cooled.

Note: 5 years ago under President Barack Hussein in July 2014, the index was at 81.8.

Key Insights

  • Unemployment near a half-century low and fresh stock-market highs are helping to underpin consumer purchases and provide fuel for an economy challenged by weaker global growth, soft manufacturing and tepid business investment. Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, is forecast to accelerate in Q-2.
  • The reading of expectations for personal finances rose to 136, matching the highest mark since Y 2004.
  • The data follow a weekly comfort gauge, which climbed last week to a fresh 18-year high on stronger views of the buying climate and personal finances. In June, the Conference Board’s confidence measure fell to the lowest level since September 2017.
  • The measure of 5 year inflation expectations rebounded to 2.6% from the prior month’s reading of 2.3%, which matched a record low. Consumers also expected 2.6% inflation over the coming year, down from 2.7% the prior month.
  • The share of households that expected interest rate increases fell to 44%, the lowest since May 2013, while 19% expected rates to fall, the most in 10 years.
  • Buying attitudes toward durable goods and vehicles were little changed near the highest level of this year as a greater share of consumers mentioned price discounts on durable items.
  • Economists survey projected the main measure would increase to 98.8.
  • Interviews were conducted 25 June to 17 July. The final July reading is due for release on 2 August.

Official’s View

Favorable trends in personal finances remained widespread,” the Director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement. “These favorable financial expectations were supported by gains in household incomes and wealth.”

Have a terrific weekend.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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