US Consumer Inflation Expectations Mark New Low

US Consumer Inflation Expectations Mark New Low


Monday, the S&P 500 closed unchanged, as energy, financials outperformed

US consumers’ inflation expectations declined in August and workers grew more pessimistic about their job situation, data from the New York Federal Reserve showed Monday, supporting the case for further interest rate cuts.

The New York Fed’s monthly survey of consumer expectations, which officials look at along with other data on pricing, showed consumers’ 1-year inflation outlook declined 0.2 percentage point to 2.4% last month, the lowest since the survey was launched in 2013. The 3-year outlook for inflation expectations fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%.

Fed officials cited weak inflation as 1 of the concerns that motivated them to cut interest rates in July for the 1st time in more than 10 year. Investors widely expect officials to cut interest rates again when the FOMC meets on 17-18 September, but policymakers disagree on how much the Fed should intervene, as the data is mixed.

The US economy is producing an inflation rate persistently short of the Fed’s 2% goal. Officials are divided on whether a rate cut is needed at a time when the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low and consumer spending is strong. The Fed currently targets short-term rates between 2.00% and 2.25%.

The New York Fed’s inflation survey is conducted by a third party and polls a rotating panel of about 1,300 households.

Monday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA +38.05 at 26835.49, Nasdaq -15.64 at 8087.47, S&P 500 -0.28 at 2978.43

Volume on the NYSE came in at 891-M/shares exchanged

  • NAS Comp +21.9% YTD
  • S&P 500 +18.8% YTD
  • DJIA +15.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +13.0% YTD

HeffX-LTN’s overall technical outlook for the major US stock market indexes is Neutral with a Bullish bias, 3 of our Key indicators have turned Very Bullish in here.

Making and Keeping America Great!

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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