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United States Oil (USO) weighed down by data showing a smaller-than-expected draw on U.S. crude stockpiles along with worries about the global economy

United States Oil (USO) weighed down by data showing a smaller-than-expected draw on U.S. crude stockpiles along with worries about the global economy

Oil prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by data showing a smaller-than-expected draw on U.S. crude stockpiles along with worries about the global economy.

Front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 31 cents or 0.49% at $63.51 per barrel by 1320 GMT. Brent closed up 2.3% on Wednesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 51 cents or 0.89% at $56.83 per barrel. WTI closed up 1.9% on Wednesday.

Markets appeared largely unmoved by the detention in Gibraltar by British Royal Marines of a supertanker possibly carrying Iranian crude oil bound for Syria, as tensions between Iran and the United States have flared over mysterious attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman in recent months.

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Some analysts, however, believe the global economy remains robust and that demand is likely to be strong.

“The Shanghai Composite Index is around the same level as when Donald Trump occupied the White House. It is also worth remembering that global GDP growth, albeit revised down lately by the IMF, is still expected to be a healthy 3.3% this year and 3.6% in 2020. Fears of recession? What recession?” wrote PVM’s Tamas Varga.

Uncertainty over demand, however, was offset slightly by the outlook for global supply.

Output will stay limited as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Tuesday to extend oil production cuts until March 2020.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 12.53.

The projected lower bound is: 10.93.

The projected closing price is: 11.73.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.0591. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.92. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 1. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.070 at 11.770. Volume was 21% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 34% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.810 11.855 11.648 11.770 19,690,232

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 12.02 12.18 12.33
Volatility: 46 43 41
Volume: 31,166,852 28,725,854 27,261,630

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 4.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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