United States Oil (USO) weighed down by an emerging supply overhang
International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 briefly dipped below $60 per barrel before rising back to $60.33 at 0746 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $51.24 per barrel, down 39 cents, or 0.8 percent.
Saudi Arabia raised oil production to an all-time high in November, an industry source said on Monday, pumping 11.1 million to 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) during the month.
Oil prices have lost almost a third of their value since early October, weighed down by an emerging supply overhang and widespread financial market weakness.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 13.09.
The projected upper bound is: 11.72.
The projected lower bound is: 10.01.
The projected closing price is: 10.87.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 13 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.6265. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 23.45. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 36 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -131.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 32 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.110 at 10.940. Volume was 66% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 117% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
10.950 11.060 10.880 10.940 39,021,572
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.69 14.06 13.77
Volatility: 69 42 34
Volume: 48,451,648 28,272,044 21,929,592
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 20.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition.
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