United States Oil (USO) US crackdown on Iran exports
US oil prices raced above US$65 (AUD$91) a barrel for the first time since October after the White House pledged to deepen its crackdown on Iran.
The Trump administration vowed to bring Iran’s oil exports to “zero” by removing the waivers that previously allowed some countries to buy crude from the OPEC nation.
The escalation adds to mounting supply concerns in the global oil market.
Venezuela’s oil shipments have been wiped out by US sanctions. Violence is rocking Libya. And Saudi Arabia has slashed its output.
“The market will be under pressure and the prices will definitely react upward,” said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at consulting firm Facts Global Energy.
President Donald Trump also promised in a tweet that “Saudi Arabia and others in OPEC will more than make up” the difference.
The oil market, however, signaled skepticism.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.45.
The projected upper bound is: 14.17.
The projected lower bound is: 13.27.
The projected closing price is: 13.72.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 11 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.5713. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 73.17. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 191.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.350 at 13.670. Volume was 18% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
13.610 13.720 13.600 13.670 20,381,728
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.36 12.31 12.86
Volatility: 21 23 38
Volume: 18,305,900 19,959,050 24,918,220
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 6.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 31 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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