United States Oil (USO) up, stocks down after Iran missile attack on US troops
Oil prices rose and global stock markets fell Wednesday after Iran fired missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of an Iranian general.
Brent crude futures, the benchmark for international oils, spiked more than $3 per barrel in London before retreating.
Stock markets in London and Frankfurt opened lower and Tokyo’s benchmark fell nearly 2% before recovering some of its losses. Hong Kong and Shanghai also retreated.
“Investors appear to be pricing for an all-out war,” said Jingyi Pan of IG in a report.
The Pentagon said Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at bases in Iraq used by U.S. troops. President Donald Trump tweeted “All is well!” and that casualty and damage assessments were ongoing, adding “So far, so good!”
Iran’s foreign minister described the missile firings as “proportionate measures in self-defense.”
Financial markets have been on edge about possible U.S.-Iranian conflict and disruption of oil supplies since last week’s killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani by a U.S. drone in Baghdad.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.29.
The projected upper bound is: 13.05.
The projected lower bound is: 11.96.
The projected closing price is: 12.51.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.1351. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -167.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.170 at 12.490. Volume was 18% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.450 12.540 12.290 12.490 27,517,382
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.89 12.26 12.06
Volatility: 30 29 39
Volume: 20,245,558 19,564,106 25,395,010
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 49 periods.