United States Oil (USO) Up as Petroleum Inventories Take a Surprise Dive

United States Oil (USO) Up as Petroleum Inventories Take a Surprise Dive

United States Oil (USO) Up as Petroleum Inventories Take a Surprise Dive

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday morning showing that U.S. commercial crude inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels last week, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 432.4 million barrels. The commercial crude inventory remains in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Before the EIA report, benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July delivery traded down about 0.2% at around $66.12 a barrel and rose to around $66.67 (up about the same amount) shortly after the report’s release. WTI settled at $66.36 on Tuesday and opened at $66.05 Wednesday morning. The 52-week range on July futures is $45.18 to $72.90.

Here is a look at how share prices for two blue-chip stocks and two exchange traded funds reacted to this latest report.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) traded down about 0.2% at $82.26 in a 52-week range of $72.16 to $89.30. Over the past 12 months, Exxon stock has traded up about 0.8%.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) traded down about 0.2%, at $126.81 in a 52-week range of $102.55 to $133.88. As of last night’s close, Chevron shares are trading up about 17.3% over the past year.

The United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: USO) traded up about 0.3% at $13.44 in a 52-week range of $8.65 to $14.74.

The VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEAMERICAN: OIH) traded up less than 0.1% at $26.78 in a 52-week range of $21.70 to $29.87.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 14.08.

The projected lower bound is: 12.89.

The projected closing price is: 13.48.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 85.4330. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -7. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.070 at 13.470. Volume was 13% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 59% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
13.350 13.515 13.325 13.470 17,448,188

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.32 13.73 12.11
Volatility: 22 28 26
Volume: 18,796,940 19,159,374 18,309,766

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 11.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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