U.S. crude oil output growth was expected to slow slightly for this year compared with previous forecasts, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, but at a record 10.88 million barrels per day, the nation will end 2018 as the world’s top producer.
Output this year was forecast to rise 1.53 million bpd to 10.88 million bpd, down from the EIA’s previous estimate of an increase of 1.55 million bpd. The current all-time U.S. annual output peak was in 1970 at 9.6 million bpd, according to federal energy data.
For 2019, U.S. crude oil production was expected to average 12.06 million bpd, the EIA said, up 1.18 million bpd from the prior year which is a small upward revision from the previous forecast of a 1.16-million bpd rise.
A shale revolution has helped the United States produce a record amount of oil this year and topple Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest producer.
“The United States will conclude 2018 as the world’s largest producer of crude oil,” said EIA Administrator Dr. Linda Capuano.
“EIA’s December short-term outlook largely attributes the recent decline in Brent crude oil spot prices, which averaged $65 per barrel in November, to record production among the world’s largest crude oil producers and concerns about weaker global oil demand.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.68.
The projected upper bound is: 11.73.
The projected lower bound is: 9.99.
The projected closing price is: 10.86.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.4888. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.200 at 10.950. Volume was 18% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.040 11.100 10.850 10.950 20,848,334
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10.94 13.24 13.70
Volatility: 46 45 35
Volume: 36,580,568 32,106,924 22,794,092
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 20.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 38 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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