The United States this year became the largest crude oil producer, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to preliminary estimates from the Energy Information Administration.
Although following the June 22 agreement between OPEC and Russia to up production to rein in prices Russia increased its output by more than 200,000 bpd, the average since the start of the year is higher for the United States, where drillers have evidently taken full advantage of higher prices and relatively low costs.
Earlier this week, in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA estimated that U.S. crude oil production at 10.9 million bpd in August, an increase of 120,000 bpd from June. Although this was lower than Russia’s 11.21 million bpd for the same month, on average, the U.S. production rate for 2018 so far has been higher, the EIA estimates.
What’s more, the authority said production growth will continue: it has estimated the average for full-2018 will be 10.7 million. That’s a substantial increase on last year’s average of 9.4 million bpd, and production will continue to grow in 2019 as well to 11.5 million bpd.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.22.
The projected upper bound is: 15.14.
The projected lower bound is: 13.82.
The projected closing price is: 14.48.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 6 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.5932. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 51 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 1. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.290 at 14.490. Volume was 9% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.610 14.670 14.390 14.490 18,426,742
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.52 14.30 13.30
Volatility: 24 29 29
Volume: 14,196,162 19,395,516 19,243,148
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 9.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.
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