United States Oil (USO) U.S. waivers on Iran sanctions
Oil futures ended lower Monday on reports that the Trump administration was softening its hard line on Iran crude exports and might allow waivers for some buyers when sanctions against the Islamic Republic’s crude exports go back into effect in November.
Oil prices had seen steeper losses early Monday. A U.S. government official said the Trump administration was considering waivers on sanctions for countries that are reducing imports of Iranian oil, Reuters reported on Friday.
“The U.S. appears to be abandoning its tough stance on buyers of Iranian oil,” wrote analysts at Commerzbank. “It appears that consumer countries are to be given more time after all to replace their oil shipments from Iran so long as they at least reduce them significantly.”
Concerns about the hit to global supply from the reimposition of sanctions have been credited with the run-up in crude prices that took Brent above $86 a barrel to trade at a nearly four-year high last week, while WTI moved above $76.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.75.
The projected upper bound is: 16.32.
The projected lower bound is: 15.10.
The projected closing price is: 15.71.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.9841. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.010 at 15.680. Volume was 1% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.560 15.705 15.530 15.680 19,786,746
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.62 14.60 13.62
Volatility: 26 27 29
Volume: 20,034,028 18,037,848 19,771,828
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 15.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.