United States Oil (USO) U.S. sanctions against Iran’s fuel exports softened
Oil prices fell on Monday as the start to U.S. sanctions against Iran’s fuel exports was softened by waivers that will allow some countries to still import Iranian crude, at least temporarily.
Front-month Brent crude futures were at $72.39 per barrel at 0142 GMT on Monday, down 44 cents, or 0.6 percent from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 53 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $62.61 a barrel.
A slowdown in demand would come just as output is rising.
Joint output from the world’s top producers – Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia – in October rose above 33 million bpd for the first time, up 10 million bpd since 2010.
These three countries alone meet more than a third of consumption.
In the Middle East, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) plans to increase its oil production capacity to 4 million bpd by the end of 2020 and 5 million bpd by 2030, ADNOC said on Sunday, compared with current output of just over 3 million bpd.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 13.97.
The projected lower bound is: 12.61.
The projected closing price is: 13.29.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.5088. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 27.22. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -157.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.150 at 13.310. Volume was 38% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 62% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
13.420 13.515 13.275 13.310 28,761,424
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.01 14.77 13.83
Volatility: 32 29 31
Volume: 26,604,540 20,151,442 20,781,266
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition.
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