United States Oil (USO) U.S. Drilling Slows Down
Oil prices were up early on Monday, steadying at a two-month high last seen in mid-November, as the plunging U.S. rig count last week signaled a slowdown in shale drilling amid the lower price of oil.
At 10:34 EST on Monday, WTI Crude was up 0.44 percent at $54.28, while Brent Crude was up 0.38 percent at $62.94.
On Friday, oil prices surged as Baker Hughes reported a drastic reduction to the number of active oil and gas in the United States in the week. The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs fell by 25 rigs, according to the report, with the number of active oil rigs decreasing by 21 to reach 852 and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 4 to reach 198. The oil and gas rig count is now 114 up from this time last year, 105 of which is in oil rigs.
The U.S. rig count last week was “the lowest level seen since May 2018,” said Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING.
“The price volatility seen over the latter part of last year certainly appears to have made producers hesitant to pick up drilling activity,” Patterson noted.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 12.23.
The projected lower bound is: 10.31.
The projected closing price is: 11.27.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.7907. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 97. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.280 at 11.310. Volume was 33% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 12% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.120 11.370 11.043 11.310 40,840,248
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10.89 10.95 13.40
Volatility: 39 56 39
Volume: 32,480,452 37,534,204 24,749,378
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 15.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.
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