United States Oil (USO) U.S.-China trade dispute and the soaring U.S. oil production are the key concerns for the oil market

United States Oil (USO) U.S.-China trade dispute and the soaring U.S. oil production are the key concerns for the oil market

United States Oil (USO) U.S.-China trade dispute and the soaring U.S. oil production are the key concerns for the oil market

The U.S.-China trade dispute and the soaring U.S. oil production are the key concerns for the oil market this year, according to Suhail Al Mazrouei, the Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), who served as OPEC’s rotating president in 2018, when oil prices had a volatile run that led to another production cut intervention by the cartel.

A heated U.S.-China trade war could be one of the strongest headwinds to global economy this year, Al Mazrouei told CNBC in an interview on Wednesday, but noted that he was cautiously optimistic that the world’s two largest economies would come to an agreement on trade.

“And I tend to be… more optimistic that we are not going to see a war. It’s negotiation tactics, they will end on a resolution, whatever it takes, this year or next year,” Al Mazrouei told CNBC.

Referring to the latest production policies of OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC allies, the UAE’s energy minister stressed again that OPEC is not chasing a specific oil price.  

“What we learn is the fact that if you make the market at balance, you will get a price that is good for the consumer and a price that is good for the investors. And that price, whatever it is, is going to be the price that we have to accept,” Al Mazrouei said.

While OPEC hears what the U.S. and President Donald Trump have to say about oil prices, the cartel is “not playing with President Trump or any other president,” the UAE’s energy minister said.

“I think what we do is we hear them (the U.S.). They are major consumers versus the major producing nations, we hear what they say but we will always do the right thing from our perspective which is always trying to maintain the balance.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 11.93.

The projected lower bound is: 10.04.

The projected closing price is: 10.99.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 13 black candles.

A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 4 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 91.3092. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 196.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.550 at 11.050. Volume was 68% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 0% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
10.810 11.100 10.690 11.050 49,188,288

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10.05 11.33 13.47
Volatility: 48 55 39
Volume: 34,360,676 36,832,008 24,326,792

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 18.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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