United States Oil (USO) Trump administration announces additional Iran sanctions

United States Oil (USO) Trump administration announces additional Iran sanctions

United States Oil (USO) Trump administration announces additional Iran sanctions

Oil futures split two ways on Monday, with U.S. prices ending higher but global benchmark Brent crude posting a loss as the U.S. announced new sanctions on Iran.

President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order imposing financial sanctions on Iranian leaders, according to pool reports from the White House.

Trump on Monday “took aim at the [Iran] Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and questioned the U.S. presence in defending the Straight of Hormuz,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst in New York with Oanda. “We are not seeing a clear message from the White House, but Trump appears hesitant to engage in war.”

“Trump does not want a war before the [U.S. presidential] election and he could choose to make a deal with Iran and use that as another campaign point,” Moya told MarketWatch. Traders have been closely watching these developments, which have the potential to disrupt oil flow in the Middle East.

In Monday dealings, August West Texas Intermediate crude CLQ19, -0.02% climbed by 47 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $57.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest front-month contract finish since May 29, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices rose 8.8% for last week, the biggest weekly percentage climb since the week ended Dec. 2, 2016.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.95.

The projected upper bound is: 12.75.

The projected lower bound is: 11.22.

The projected closing price is: 11.98.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 97.3989. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 162.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.040 at 12.010. Volume was 11% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 29% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.950 12.040 11.770 12.010 26,620,974

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11.28 12.37 12.41
Volatility: 46 41 40
Volume: 32,115,482 26,739,712 26,717,538

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 35 periods.

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