United States Oil (USO) traders fearing the global economic slowdown will weigh on future demand
Oil prices fell on Monday, extending last week’s heavy losses, with traders fearing the global economic slowdown will weigh on future oil demand growth while pegging hopes for a rebound on progress in talks this week on ending the U.S.-China trade war.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 edged down 28 cents to $58.09 a barrel by 0300 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was at $52.64, down 17 cents.
Both contracts ended last week with a more-than-5% decline after dismal manufacturing data from the United States and China, as the lingering row between the world’s top economies hurts global growth and raises the risk of recession.
U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Washington on Oct. 10-11 in the next, much-anticipated fresh effort to work out a deal.
On the supply side, a faster-than-expected resumption in Saudi Arabia’s production after a Sept. 14 attack on key production facilities also exerted downward pressure on oil prices, although the Middle East remained tense.
Global supply also faces facility repair and maintenance pressures.
The Buzzard oil field in the British North Sea has been shut for pipe repair work, a spokesman from China’s CNOOC said on Friday. Buzzard is the main contributor to the Forties crude stream, the largest of the five North Sea oil grades that underpin Brent crude futures.
Meanwhile Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Sunday it will close the Faregh oil field at Zueitina port for scheduled maintenance from Monday until Oct. 14.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.60.
The projected upper bound is: 11.97.
The projected lower bound is: 10.09.
The projected closing price is: 11.03.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.2022. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 79 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -107.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.110 at 11.040. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.070 11.140 10.860 11.040 28,011,660
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.48 11.60 11.80
Volatility: 22 51 41
Volume: 25,756,404 31,414,314 27,045,496
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 6.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.