Home Commodities United States Oil (USO) traders are concerned the ongoing trade dispute between...

United States Oil (USO) traders are concerned the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two biggest oil buyers will dent demand


United States Oil (USO) traders are concerned the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two biggest oil buyers will dent demand

Brent crude rose on Tuesday, after earlier falling to its lowest since January, as traders betting on falling prices bought back contracts to lock in profits from recent declines caused by the escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

Brent prices have plunged 7.6% since their close on July 31, the day before U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports, causing China to retaliate against agricultural imports from the United States, which responded to a decline in the Chinese yuan on Monday by branding the country a currency manipulator later in the day.

Brent fell more than 3% on Monday as traders are concerned the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two biggest oil buyers will dent demand.

Brent crude futures climbed 47 cents, or 0.8%, to $60.28 a barrel by 0351 GMT after earlier dipping to $59.07, their lowest since Jan. 14.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 47 cents, or 0.9%, to $55.16 per barrel.

Iran on Monday said it will no longer tolerate “maritime offences” in the Strait of Hormuz, a day after it seized a second oil tanker near the strategic waterway that it accused of smuggling fuel.

Iran’s seizure of the Iraqi oil tanker had raised some concerns about potential Middle East supply disruptions.

Oil prices may find some support later this week with a preliminary Reuters poll showing U.S. crude oil inventories were expected to fall for an eighth consecutive week.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.93.

The projected upper bound is: 12.16.

The projected lower bound is: 10.55.

The projected closing price is: 11.36.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.6914. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 36 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -130.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.110 at 11.370. Volume was 77% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
11.310 11.540 11.290 11.370 47,151,808
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11.68 11.69 11.95
Volatility: 44 44 42
Volume: 30,465,760 29,469,414 28,039,692

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 4.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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