United States Oil (USO) to Remain Range-Bound
WTI Crude Oil prices were trading flat on Wednesday. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed that the crude oil inventory fell by 2.7 million barrels for the week ending August 16. This was the first decline in inventory in the past three weeks. The build-up comes following two-weeks of back-to-back increases in the inventory report.
WTI Crude Oil to Remain Range-Bound
Oil prices have settled into a sideways range of 57.50 and 54.42 region. Price action has been trading within this level since last week. A breakout from this range is required in order for the momentum to build up. It is likely that the breach of support at 54.42 will see oil prices falling back to lows of 51.70 where another support level exists that was previously tested.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 12.40.
The projected lower bound is: 10.84.
The projected closing price is: 11.62.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.8104. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 48 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 106.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.020 at 11.610. Volume was 14% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.840 11.870 11.550 11.610 24,097,508
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.46 11.68 11.78
Volatility: 40 43 42
Volume: 29,316,472 30,055,862 28,360,432
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.
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