United States Oil (USO) The Winners And Losers Of The OPEC Decision
OPEC members met on Jun 22 to discuss the feasibility of an output boost proposal. Though no concrete figures have been provided, OPEC will now return to 100% agreement to the previously agreed output cuts. Saudi Arabia said the renewed deal will result in a nominal output rise of around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) or 1% of global supply while as per Iraq, the real increase would be a little less at around 770,000 bpd as many countries will strive to attain full quotas.
Energy – SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
This is an obvious choice. If oil price remains stable on the smaller-than-expected output boost as well as a declining U.S. crude inventory, oil exploration and production stocks are sure to benefit as these companies will tend to pump more oil ahead. XOP added about 3.2% on Jun 22 (read: Oil Price Jumps on Syria Turmoil: ETFs & Stocks to Trade).
Retail – SPDR S&P Retail ETF
Lower gasoline prices are good news for retailers as consumers can make energy savings and spend more money on discretionary items. So, rising energy prices are not likely to bode well for retailers. XRT lost about 0.3% on Jun 22.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 14.97.
The projected lower bound is: 13.60.
The projected closing price is: 14.29.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.9652. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 201.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.500 at 14.270. Volume was 71% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
13.910 14.306 13.790 14.270 33,586,288
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.51 13.80 12.28
Volatility: 46 32 27
Volume: 22,173,120 19,903,504 18,317,630
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 16.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.
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