United States Oil (USO) surges above $75
U.S. crude prices surged on Monday, hitting a nearly four-year high on signs that sanctions are shrinking Iranian crude exports and as North American trade tensions ease.
Rising oil prices threaten to cut oil demand in emerging economies.
This could trigger inflation. This could trigger substitution of other fuels for energy, it ultimately will have a long-term effect on demand. We’ll be back into that cycle of boom-bust.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.55.
The projected upper bound is: 16.58.
The projected lower bound is: 15.39.
The projected closing price is: 15.99.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.6203. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 74.07. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 63 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 173.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.430 at 15.950. Volume was 30% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.500 16.005 15.445 15.950 26,235,316
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.18 14.45 13.51
Volatility: 22 26 29
Volume: 18,587,372 17,665,968 19,443,228
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 18.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an overbought condition.