United States Oil (USO) Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell to a four-year low in February
Oil prices rose on Monday as supply tightened amid output cuts by producer club OPEC and as the United States and China were reported to be close to signing a trade deal that would end a tariff row that has slowed global economic growth.
International Brent futures were at $65.39 a barrel at 0416 GMT, up 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $56.08 per barrel, up 28 cents, or 0.5 percent.
The rally came on reports that the United States and China are close to ending their trade disputes, which have weighed on global economic growth.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could reach a formal trade deal at a summit around March 27 given progress in talks between the two countries, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.
The news added support to a market that has been rallying for the past two months on cuts to production.
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell to a four-year low in February, a Reuters survey found, as top exporter Saudi Arabia and its allies over-delivered on the group’s supply pact while Venezuelan output registered a further involuntary decline.
“OPEC exports are off by over 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) since November,” Barclays bank said in a note released on Sunday.
In the United States, there are signs that the oil production boom of the past years, which has seen crude output rise by more than 2 million bpd since early 2018 to more than 12 million bpd, may slow down.
U.S. energy firms last week cut the number of oil rigs looking for new reserves to the lowest in almost nine months as some producers follow through on plans to cut spending despite an over 20-percent increase in crude futures so far this year.
Despite this, Barclays said “we believe that there could be a repeat performance in the second-half of this year” for U.S. oil output.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.55.
The projected upper bound is: 12.39.
The projected lower bound is: 10.98.
The projected closing price is: 11.68.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 60.6060. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 44 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.290 at 11.660. Volume was 2% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.950 12.030 11.610 11.660 31,673,628
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.80 10.93 13.09
Volatility: 32 43 39
Volume: 19,910,762 27,344,752 25,134,056
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 10.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 36 periods.
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