United States Oil (USO) strong exports and a whopping drop in imports has led to a sizable crude draw
Oil futures rose Wednesday after Saudi Arabia affirmed its commitment to reducing output, then got an added boost after data revealed an unexpected weekly drop in U.S. crude supplies — the first decline in six weeks.
The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies unexpectedly dropped by 8.6 million barrels. The decline followed five straight weeks of increases and defied most market forecasts. Informa Economics projected a rise of 3.5 million barrels.The American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday showed a decline of 4.2 million barrels.
“A tick higher in refinery runs, strong exports and a whopping drop in imports has led to a sizable crude draw,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData. “Refinery runs are now back above year-ago levels, while domestic production has ticked higher again, now at 12.1 million barrels per day.”
Supplies of gasoline fell by 1.9 million barrels, while distillates edged down by 300,000 barrels last week, according to the EIA. Informa Economics had expected supply declines of 1.5 million barrels for gasoline and 2.5 million barrels for distillates, which include heating oil.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.54.
The projected upper bound is: 12.64.
The projected lower bound is: 11.17.
The projected closing price is: 11.90.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 6 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.1190. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.01. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 42 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.260 at 11.890. Volume was 31% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 48% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.825 11.990 11.760 11.890 21,507,776
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.72 10.88 13.11
Volatility: 28 45 39
Volume: 20,111,088 27,944,332 25,056,026
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 9.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods.