United States Oil (USO) still heading for losses of about 4%, hit by a combination of rising global supply and uncertain future demand

United States Oil (USO) still heading for losses of about 4%, hit by a combination of rising global supply and uncertain future demand

United States Oil (USO) still heading for losses of about 4%, hit by a combination of rising global supply and uncertain future demand

Oil prices edged up on Friday after a difficult week, but were still headed for losses of about 4%, hit by a combination of rising global supply and uncertain future demand.

U.S. crude rose for the first time in four days, gaining 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $54.36 a barrel by 0339 GMT. The contract was set for a weekly loss of more than 4%.

Brent crude was up 5 cents, or 0.1%, at $59.67 a barrel, leaving it on track for a drop of nearly 4%.

Worries over global economic growth, along with oil demand, continue to haunt the market as leaders from the United States and China struggle to end a 16-month dispute that has roiled trade between the world’s top two economies.

“Concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute have come home to roost,” said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader.

The market received some respite from a run of poor economic data after an unexpected bounce in a private sector survey of Chinese manufacturing activity on Friday, which contrasted with the dour results of an official survey Thursday.

Japanese factory activity, however, sank to more than a three-year low in October, data showed on Friday, in a fresh warning sign for the world’s third-largest economy.

U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 25, dwarfing analyst expectations for an increase of just 494,000 barrels.

A Reuters survey showed that oil prices are likely to remain under pressure this year and next. The poll of 51 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $64.16 a barrel in 2019 and $62.38 next year.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude production soared nearly 600,000 barrels per day in August to a record of 12.4 million, buoyed by a 30% increase in Gulf of Mexico output, according to government data released on Thursday.

Those numbers came as a Reuters survey found output from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recovered in October from an eight-year low, with a rapid recovery in Saudi Arabian production from attacks on oil plants more than offsetting losses in Ecuador and voluntary curbs under a supply pact.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 12.13.

The projected lower bound is: 10.46.

The projected closing price is: 11.29.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 28.3333. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 98 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.170 at 11.300. Volume was 22% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 29% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
11.390 11.400 11.210 11.300 22,113,048
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11.50 11.54 11.91
Volatility: 24 45 38
Volume: 20,110,528 27,519,678 25,998,212

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 5.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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