United States Oil (USO) some of the advance is tied to higher crude prices ahead of the G20 meeting

United States Oil (USO) some of the advance is tied to higher crude prices ahead of the G20 meeting

United States Oil (USO) some of the advance is tied to higher crude prices ahead of the G20 meeting

U.S. oil prices climbed by nearly 3% on Wednesday, as the U.S. government reported a weekly drop of nearly 13 million barrels in domestic crude stocks.

Gasoline futures also rallied on news of the planned closure of a key East Coast refinery. Prices for both U.S. oil and gasoline settled at their highest in five weeks.

“An eye opening [more than] 12 million-barrel draw in crude, which was 10 million barrels bigger than expected, should give support to the move” higher Wednesday, said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors.

Given the drawdown in gasoline inventories and supply decline at the U.S. oil trading hub at Cushing, Okla., “we wouldn’t be surprised to see the $60 level get breached in WTI,” he said. “However, with the upcoming OPEC meeting and also the [Group of 20 leaders summit], we will see the next directional move on the results of these two events.”

August West Texas Intermediate crude CLQ19, -0.32% rose $1.55, or 2.7%, to settle at $59.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping a high at $59.93. The settlement was the highest for a front-month contract since May 22, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

International benchmark August Brent crude BRNQ19, -0.21% gained $1.44, or 2.2%, to $66.49 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe—the highest settlement in about a month.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 13.04.

The projected lower bound is: 11.50.

The projected closing price is: 12.27.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 5 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.3114. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 142.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.290 at 12.290. Volume was 45% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.290 12.430 12.250 12.290 35,059,472

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11.53 12.33 12.39
Volatility: 33 41 40
Volume: 32,544,916 27,216,964 26,862,300

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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