United States Oil (USO) slips on rising U.S. supply

United States Oil (USO) slips on rising U.S. supply

United States Oil (USO) slips on rising U.S. supply

Crude oil futures were stable to slightly lower in mid-morning trade in Asia Wednesday after the release of mildly bearish US inventory data and the suspension of strike action in the North Sea.

US crude stocks rose 38,000 barrels in the week ended August 24, according to analysts quoting a American Petroleum Institute report released Tuesday.

Analysts surveyed Monday by S&P Global Platts had been expecting a 1 million-barrels draw.

Data for US gasoline and distillate inventories was also mildly bearish at up 21,000 barrels and up 982,000 barrels respectively in the API data.

More definitive data on US inventory levels is due for release by the US Energy Information Administration later Wednesday.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.07.

The projected upper bound is: 15.20.

The projected lower bound is: 13.71.

The projected closing price is: 14.45.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with UNTD ST OIL FUND). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.8829. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 40 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 107.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.070 at 14.430. Volume was 48% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
14.510 14.510 14.350 14.430 10,730,074

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.03 14.23 13.12
Volatility: 30 34 29
Volume: 18,243,598 21,711,214 19,217,046

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 10.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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