United States Oil (USO) signs of deteriorating demand and rising output
U.S. oil prices dropped for a ninth consecutive session on Thursday, falling into a bear market, on further signs of growing supply even as data showed record Chinese oil imports.
Crude prices have plunged over the last five weeks, buffeted by October’s broader market slump, signs of deteriorating demand and rising output from key producers.
The decline continued earlier this week after the Trump administration announced it would issue waivers to eight countries, allowing them to continue importing Iranian crude for the next 180 days. The United States restored sanctions on Iran’s energy, banking and shipping industries on Monday.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.20.
The projected upper bound is: 13.47.
The projected lower bound is: 12.13.
The projected closing price is: 12.80.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.4997. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 22.40. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -129.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.220 at 12.840. Volume was 31% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 68% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.990 13.060 12.820 12.840 27,401,016
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.54 14.66 13.83
Volatility: 17 29 30
Volume: 26,204,392 21,130,818 20,921,912
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 7.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition.
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