The American Petroleum Institute’s latest monthly statistical report shows the U.S. produced a record 11.0 million barrels of crude oil per day (mb/d) in September. U.S. liquid fuels production grew 2.2 mb/d year-over-year (y/y), and the U.S. met virtually all global oil demand growth. As supply increased, crude oil inventories also rose in September but remained nearly 14 percent below those of September 2017.
“The United States has continued to lead the world in oil production growth this year and that growth is helping to meet growing energy needs at home and abroad despite production losses by some OPEC nations,” said API Chief Economist Dean Foreman. “As a result, consumers have continued to enjoy affordable fuel prices that also are a key advantage for the U.S. economy.”
Strongest year-to-date jet fuel demand on record.
Refinery and petrochemical feedstock demand up more than 0.5 mb/d since September 2017
Global and U.S. oil prices and volatility diverged.
Interest rates rose along with a solid economy.
U.S. petroleum exports rebounded.
U.S. petroleum inventories stable in the 5-year range.
Source: American Petroleum Institute
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 15.38.
The projected lower bound is: 14.10.
The projected closing price is: 14.74.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 18.5714. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -102.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.160 at 14.720. Volume was 0% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 5% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.680 14.800 14.630 14.720 20,596,430
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.14 14.75 13.76
Volatility: 30 28 30
Volume: 23,463,928 19,048,612 20,301,872
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 7.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
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