United States Oil (USO) sanctions on Venezuelan petroleum products have cemented support for oil prices
Brent crude oil prices on Thursday hit their highest so far this year, pushed up by ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC and by U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran.
Brent was still at $67.75 per barrel at 0244 GMT, up 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from its last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $58.38 per barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement, and also close to November 2018 highs reached the previous day.
Tighter global inventories from OPEC-led supply cuts and … U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan petroleum products have cemented support for oil prices.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-aligned producers including Russia have been withholding oil supply since the start of the year to tighten global markets and prop up crude prices.
In Venezuela, oil production and exports have been disrupted by a political and economic crisis that has caused massive blackouts and supply shortages, while Washington has barred U.S. companies from doing business with the Venezuelan government, including state-owned oil firm PDVSA.
Amid the turmoil, two storage tanks exploded at a heavy-crude upgrading project in eastern Venezuela on Wednesday, according to an oil industry source and a legislator.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.57.
The projected upper bound is: 12.79.
The projected lower bound is: 11.69.
The projected closing price is: 12.24.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 8 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.9447. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 52 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 189.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.300 at 12.190. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 66% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.050 12.210 12.030 12.190 29,013,612
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.85 11.27 12.98
Volatility: 24 31 39
Volume: 22,975,690 25,024,170 25,424,660
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 6.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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