United States Oil (USO) sanctions against Iran and Venezuela were also seen pushing up crude prices
Oil prices rose to a five-month high on Monday, driven by expectations for tighter global supply from fighting in Libya, OPEC-led cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.
International benchmark Brent futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $71.03 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up by 2.1% at $64.40 per barrel and hit its highest level since Nov. 1.
Prices extended gains after crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, fell by about 419,000 barrels last week, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape.
The moves in oil prices came amid a recent resurgence in conflict in Libya, a key oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
“The main feature of what has to be said are pretty soporific global financial markets at the start of the week and ahead of some key event risk(s) on Wednesday has been a further jump in oil prices,” Shayne ‘Jack’ Heffernan, CEO and Founder of Heffx Trading, wrote in a morning note.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.12.
The projected upper bound is: 13.94.
The projected lower bound is: 12.95.
The projected closing price is: 13.44.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 11 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.5027. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 76.44. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 148.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.250 at 13.400. Volume was 13% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
13.230 13.410 13.230 13.400 23,437,700
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.80 11.94 12.91
Volatility: 22 27 39
Volume: 20,378,520 20,806,406 25,315,844
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an overbought condition.
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