United States Oil (USO) rose supported by firm Chinese economic data that eased demand concerns
Oil prices rose to fresh 2019 highs on Tuesday, supported by firm Chinese economic data that eased demand concerns, the possibility of more sanctions on Iran and further Venezuelan supply disruptions.
Brent crude rose 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $69.33 a barrel by 0212 GMT, having earlier touched $69.50, the highest since mid-November.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 30 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $61.89 a barrel, after earlier rising above $62 for the first time since early November.
Positive data from the world’s biggest economies, the United States and China bolstered prices, with China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly returning to growth for the first time in four months during March, figures showed on Monday.
On the supply side, the U.S. government is considering additional sanctions against Iran that would target areas of its economy that have not been hit before, a senior Trump administration official told reporters on Monday.
The official also suggested that the U.S. may not extend waivers from sanctions on Iranian oil exports to a group of eight importers that expire next month.
Production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) helped push the group’s supply to a four-year low in March, a Reuters survey found.
The world’s biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, over-delivered on the group’s supply-cutting pact while Venezuelan output fell further due to U.S. sanctions and earlier power outages.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.87.
The projected upper bound is: 13.36.
The projected lower bound is: 12.36.
The projected closing price is: 12.86.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 9 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.0491. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 65 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 209.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.320 at 12.820. Volume was 20% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 37% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.620 12.830 12.580 12.820 22,855,468
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.42 11.75 12.92
Volatility: 25 27 39
Volume: 18,919,090 21,593,002 25,255,094
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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