United States Oil (USO) rose on hopes that potential progress in the latest Sino-U.S. tariff talks would improve the global economic outlook

United States Oil (USO) rose on hopes that potential progress in the latest Sino-U.S. tariff talks would improve the global economic outlook

United States Oil (USO) rose on hopes that potential progress in the latest Sino-U.S. tariff talks would improve the global economic outlook

Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by hopes that potential progress in the latest Sino-U.S. tariff talks would improve the global economic outlook, and as China’s trade figures including crude imports beat forecasts.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $54.16 per barrel at 0413 GMT, up 26 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement.

International Brent crude oil futures were up 37 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $63.98 a barrel.

Markets were also supported by upbeat Chinese trade data, including for crude oil.

China’s crude oil imports in January rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier, customs data showed on Thursday, to an average of 10.03 million barrels per day (bpd), the third straight month that imports have exceeded the 10 million bpd mark.

Not all data pointed to tighter market conditions and higher prices.

Climbing U.S. oil stockpiles weighed on prices. U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week to the highest since November 2017 as refiners cut runs to the lowest since October 2017, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories built for a fourth week in a row, rising 3.6 million barrels to 450.8 million barrels in the week to Feb. 8. Analysts polled by Reuters forecast an increase of 2.7 million barrels.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 12.13.

The projected lower bound is: 10.56.

The projected closing price is: 11.35.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.7170. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 33 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.180 at 11.340. Volume was 34% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 70% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.300 11.471 11.294 11.340 20,781,780

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.27 10.74 13.21
Volatility: 27 48 39
Volume: 20,573,178 30,881,284 25,187,108

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 14.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods.

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