United States Oil (USO) rose against expectations as production hit a record

United States Oil (USO) rose against expectations as production hit a record

United States Oil (USO) rose against expectations as production hit a record.

Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after official data showed U.S. crude and gasoline stocks rose against expectations as production hit a record.

Brent crude futures were down 18 cents, or 0.3%, at $63.88 a barrel by 0517 GMT, having dropped 0.3% on Wednesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $57.87, after falling 0.5% in the previous session.

Crude stockpiles in the United States swelled 1.6 million barrels last week as production hit a record high of 12.9 million barrels per day (bpd) and refinery runs slowed, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a drop of 418,000 barrels.

More bearish was a 5.1 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks, compared with forecasts for a 1.2 million-barrel gain.

“Stubbornly high U.S. crude inventories have seen oil prices ease in Asia today,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. But “dips … are likely to be limited for now, as the U.S. holiday mutes activity,” he added.

Oil prices had risen this week on expectations that China and the United States, the world’s two biggest crude users, would soon sign a preliminary agreement, putting an end to their 16-month trade dispute.

Forces based in eastern Libya said on Wednesday they had driven rival factions from the 70,000-bpd El Feel oilfield after attacking the area with air strikes, leading to production being halted and raising some worries about supply.

In the United States, energy services company Baker Hughes reported that U.S. oil drillers reduced the number of drilling rigs for a record 12 months in a row.

Drillers cut three oil rigs in the week to Nov. 27, bringing the count down to 668, lowest since April 2017, Baker Hughes said in its report released a day early due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.62.

The projected upper bound is: 12.64.

The projected lower bound is: 11.64.

The projected closing price is: 12.14.


Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 81.0964. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 117 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.050 at 12.140. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 35% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
12.160 12.220 12.015 12.140 15,076,839
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 12.01 11.63 11.98
Volatility: 32 27 38
Volume: 22,554,184 23,237,410 25,870,550

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 1.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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