United States Oil (USO) risks of a slower global economy due to trade wars is acting as a counterweight on crude

United States Oil (USO)  risks of a slower global economy due to trade wars is acting as a counterweight on crude

United States Oil (USO) risks of a slower global economy due to trade wars is acting as a counterweight on crude

If not for the trade war, both oil and gasoline prices could be much higher than they are now on rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Analysts say oil could be more than 10% higher, but if there is a resolution of trade issues, and the situation in the Middle East intensifies, there are risks of price spikes that take oil to as high as $100 a barrel this summer.

“If you do get a trade war resolution, a better economy coupled with Iran sanctions, that’s a recipe for higher oil,” said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities and derivatives at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Blanch said under that scenario, one incident could trigger a spike in Brent, the international benchmark, to $100 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate futures are flat this week at just around $62 per barrel and down 2.2% for the month so far, even though the U.S. has sent an aircraft carrier and bombers to the Gulf due to unspecified threats, which U.S. officials say are the work of Iran.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 13.50.

The projected lower bound is: 12.49.

The projected closing price is: 12.99.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 36.6741. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.100 at 12.970. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 5% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.770 13.005 12.760 12.970 22,020,292

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.85 12.80 12.75
Volatility: 30 25 37
Volume: 27,864,986 21,814,108 25,112,726

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 1.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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