United States Oil (USO) record levels for three consecutive weeks
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil production last week was 11.7 million barrels per day, remaining the record levels for three consecutive weeks.
U.S. crude oil output for the week one year ago was 9.7 million barrels per day. Earlier this year, U.S. crude production hit 10 million barrels per day levels, becoming one of the largest producers in the world.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil imports and exports increased last week.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.2 million barrels per day last week, up by 608,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.7 million barrels per day, 0.8 percent more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports, including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, last week averaged 384,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 186,000 barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.4 million barrels per day last week, up by 473,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged about 2.2 million barrels per day, or 77.3 percent more than the same four-week period last year.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.94.
The projected upper bound is: 11.43.
The projected lower bound is: 9.73.
The projected closing price is: 10.58.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.5495. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 21.69. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 38 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -113.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 34 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.290 at 10.660. Volume was 103% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 106% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
10.850 11.040 10.600 10.660 48,781,752
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.43 13.91 13.76
Volatility: 62 42 34
Volume: 44,958,152 29,387,182 22,177,460
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 22.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 30 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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