United States Oil (USO) rebound after sinking last week

United States Oil (USO) rebound after sinking last week

United States Oil (USO) rebound after sinking last week

Oil prices bounced on Monday from last week’s losses, boosted by reports that the United States and China could soon reach a formal agreement to end a tit-for-tat trade war that has limited global economic growth.

Crude futures gave up some of their gains around midday as the U.S. stock market slumped on weak construction spending data, but the commodity rallied into Monday’s price settlement.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 79 cents higher at $56.59 per barrel, posting a 1.4-percent gain on the day. WTI earlier rose as high as $57.

International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 60 cents at $65.67 a barrel, off a session high of $66.34.

The gains come after both benchmarks posted losses during a volatile trading period last week. Brent fell more than 3 percent, while WTI dropped 2.5 percent on the week.

U.S. energy firms last week cut the number of oil rigs looking for new reserves to the lowest in almost nine months as some producers follow through on plans to cut spending.

The nation’s production dipped in December after surging in November, though output still exceeded earlier projections, according to the Department of Energy’s first reading for the month.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.55.

The projected upper bound is: 12.49.

The projected lower bound is: 11.20.

The projected closing price is: 11.84.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 55.0633. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 45 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.140 at 11.800. Volume was 29% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.840 11.910 11.680 11.800 22,033,640

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.80 10.97 13.08
Volatility: 31 39 39
Volume: 20,237,182 26,657,786 25,154,746

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 9.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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