United States Oil (USO) racked up their biggest monthly losses in six months amid stalling demand
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday, extending losses of over 3% from Friday, when crude markets racked up their biggest monthly losses in six months amid stalling demand and as trade wars fanned fears of a global economic slowdown.
Front-month Brent crude futures were at $61.16 at 0109 GMT. That was 83 cents, or 1.3%, below Friday’s close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52.88 per barrel, down 62 cents, or 1.2% from its last settlement.
The drops followed price slumps of more than 3% on Friday, which made May the worst-performing month for crude futures since last November.
“Oil prices slid on fresh trade worries after U.S. President Donald Trump stoked global trade tensions by threatening tariffs on Mexico, which is one of the largest U.S. trade partners and a major supplier of crude oil, ” said Mithun Fernando, investment analyst at Australia’s Rivkin Securities, in a note on Monday.
U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said in a note published on Sunday that “escalating trade wars and weaker activity indicators have finally caught up with oil market sentiment”.
Brent crude oil prices have dropped almost 20% from their 2018-peak in late April.
“The magnitude and velocity of the move lower were further exacerbated by growing concerns over strong U.S. production growth and rising inventories,” Goldman said.
U.S. energy firms this week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in four weeks, and weekly production last stood at a record 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
That’s pushed up commercial U.S. crude oil inventories, which have increased by 8.4% since the start of the year to 476.5 million barrels.
“With an increasingly uncertain macro outlook as well as rising U.S. production and large available core-OPEC spare capacity helping offset declining supply from Iran and Venezuela, we instead expect prices will likely remain around our 3Q forecasts and current levels, albeit with still high price volatility, ” Goldman said.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.46.
The projected upper bound is: 11.75.
The projected lower bound is: 10.40.
The projected closing price is: 11.07.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 5 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.9176. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 23.26. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -176.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.660 at 11.100. Volume was 81% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 67% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.450 11.535 11.040 11.100 40,319,648
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.38 12.89 12.66
Volatility: 47 34 39
Volume: 28,376,044 23,240,834 25,581,132
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 12.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition.
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