United States Oil (USO) production set new records

United States Oil (USO) production set new records

United States Oil (USO) production set new records

U.S. crude oil inventories grew by 6.8 million barrels in the week ending Aug. 10 even as refineries consumed 18 million barrels of oil a day.

Oil stockpiles  increased to 414.2 million barrels, about one percent above the five year average for this time of the year, according to the Department of Energy.

EIA reported U.S. crude oil production rose by 225,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.47 million bpd in March, a new record. Texas remained the nation’s top oil producer, pumping out 4.2 million bpd, also a new record. North Dakota retained its position as the nation’s second largest oil producer, with an output of 1.2 million bpd from the Bakken shale formation.

U.S. crude oil production topped 10 million bpd in late 2017 for the first time since the 1970s, overtaking Saudi Arabia’s production. Russia clung to its position as the world’s leading oil producer at slightly under 11 million bpd.

The United States exported $19.9 billion of oil and other fuels in June, a record amount, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The energy exports helped narrow the nation’s trade deficit, the department reported.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 14.28.

The projected lower bound is: 12.76.

The projected closing price is: 13.52.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 5 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 33.0984. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 31 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -183.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.480 at 13.510. Volume was 126% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
13.780 13.790 13.440 13.510 47,568,256

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.07 14.09 12.99
Volatility: 32 34 29
Volume: 22,465,336 22,158,192 19,453,954

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 4.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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