United States Oil (USO) production levels in the country stayed at record levels
U.S. oil prices dipped on Thursday after U.S. crude inventories rose and as production levels in the country stayed at record levels, but OPEC-led supply cuts and the crisis in Venezuela supported markets.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.82 per barrel at 0036 GMT, down 19 cents, or 0.35 percent, from their last settlement.
International Brent crude oil futures had yet to trade.
U.S. crude oil inventories C-STK-T-EIA climbed by 1.3 million barrels in the week that ended Feb. 1, to 447.21 million barrels, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, average weekly U.S. crude oil production remained at the record 11.9 million barrels per day (bpd) C-OUT-T-EIA it reached in late 2018.
Countering the rising U.S. crude output and inventories are voluntary supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) aimed at tightening the market and propping up prices.
Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions against Venezuela’s oil industry are expected to knock out at least 500,000 bpd of crude exports.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 12.16.
The projected lower bound is: 10.48.
The projected closing price is: 11.32.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 9 white candles and 1 black candles for a net of 8 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.6675. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.030 at 11.320. Volume was 39% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 64% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.210 11.410 11.132 11.320 19,192,848
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.30 10.71 13.28
Volatility: 32 51 39
Volume: 21,952,116 33,165,810 25,097,298
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 14.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.
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