United States Oil (USO) production hits fresh peak

United States Oil (USO) production hits fresh peak

United States Oil (USO) production hits fresh peak

U.S. crude oil stockpiles soared unexpectedly last week as imports climbed and production edged higher to a new record, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Refined fuel inventories fell more than expected, with gasoline drawing down for a seventh straight week, as refining rates remained low, the data from the statistical arm of the Department of Energy showed.

Crude inventories rose by 7.2 million barrels in the week to March 29, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 425,000 barrels.

Most of the build was in the Gulf Coast, where stockpiles rose by 8.7 million barrels, the biggest increase in the region since September 2017. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 201,000 barrels, the EIA said.

Crude production climbed 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 12.2 million bpd, after hovering around 12-12.1 million bpd since mid-February, according to the data.

Net U.S. crude imports rose last week by 386,000 bpd while exports dropped by 163,000 bpd to 2.7 million bpd.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.94.

The projected upper bound is: 13.51.

The projected lower bound is: 12.54.

The projected closing price is: 13.03.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 95.6175. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 72.12. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 67 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 178.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.020 at 12.990. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
13.000 13.060 12.900 12.990 24,301,960

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.54 11.82 12.91
Volatility: 24 26 39
Volume: 20,154,736 20,990,916 25,288,498

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an overbought condition.

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