United States Oil (USO) production expected to hit records this year

United States Oil (USO) production expected to hit records this year

United States Oil (USO) production expected to hit records this year

U.S. oil production is anticipated to break records in the next two years — and prices are primed to increase slightly, according to an energy study released Tuesday.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Tuesday that crude oil production is expected to rise to an average of 12.4 million barrels a day in 2019 and 13.2 million barrels per day in 2020. That’s up from January’s average of 12 million barrels a day, an increase of 90,000 barrels a day from December.

The expected increases will come from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico, according to EIA.

The U.S. last September surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia as the top crude oil producer.

The report additionally found that the oil prices are expected to increase from January’s average of $59 per barrel to an average of $61 a barrel in 2019 and $62 a barrel in 2020.

This January’s oil prices had increased $2 a barrel from the previous month but were still $10 a barrel less than last January’s average.

The Trump administration has hailed U.S. crude oil production as a necessary component of America’s fight for energy independence. In his State of The Union address last week, he said the U.S. had “unleashed a revolution in American energy,” that has led to historic energy export highs and economic growth.

The focus has increasingly been on oil and natural gas production as coal and nuclear plants in the U.S. continue to shutter at a rapid pace.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 11.96.

The projected lower bound is: 10.38.

The projected closing price is: 11.17.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.

A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 6 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.8114. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 32 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -8. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.150 at 11.160. Volume was 43% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 70% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.320 11.340 11.130 11.160 17,871,136

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.28 10.73 13.23
Volatility: 29 48 39
Volume: 20,561,004 31,128,044 25,147,258

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 15.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.

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