United States Oil (USO) prices steady as U.S.-China trade deal talks seek breakthrough
Oil prices were steady on Tuesday, hanging onto gains from the previous session, after comments from the United States and China kept alive hopes that the world’s two largest economies are soon to agree on ending their trade war.
Brent crude futures <LCOc1> were down 1 cent at $63.64 at 0331 GMT, after rising 0.4% in the previous session.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures <CLc1> fell 5 cents at $57.96, having risen 0.4% on Monday.
Top trade negotiators from China and the United States held a phone call on Tuesday morning, China’s Commerce Ministry said, as the two sides try to hammer out a preliminary “phase one” deal in a trade war that has dragged on for 16 months.
“Oil prices tend to be strongly correlated to trade news flows,” said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader. “Optimism over (a) trade deal remains supportive for prices.”
China and the United States are “moving closer to agreeing” on a “phase one” trade deal, the Global Times – a tabloid run by the Chinese Communist Party’s official People’s Daily – reported earlier.
The broader producer group is widely expected to extend its 1.2-million-barrel-per-day supply cut to the middle of 2020.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan expect that OPEC+ may extend the output cuts until the end of 2020, the bank said in a note.
In the U.S., crude oil stockpiles are expected to have declined by 300,000 barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. It would be the first decline in five weeks if confirmed.
The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.61.
The projected upper bound is: 12.65.
The projected lower bound is: 11.55.
The projected closing price is: 12.10.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.9315. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 115 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 100.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed unchanged at 12.110. Volume was 32% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.030 12.140 11.970 12.110 18,794,524
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.96 11.63 11.97
Volatility: 32 30 38
Volume: 23,392,636 25,281,672 25,906,158
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 1.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.