United States Oil (USO) prices slip as economic growth concerns counter tighter supplies
Falling U.S. crude inventories helped push oil back over $70 a barrel Wednesday.
Crude stockpiles fell by 5.3 million barrels last week, a decline that was only partially offset by a 1.3 million increase in gasoline inventories, the Energy Department reported. But stocks of other petroleum products, such as distillates used in heating oil and diesel, increased significantly, pushing inventories of all petroleum products up by 10 million barrels.
Inventories of most petroleum products, including crude, remain below the five-year average.
Demand for petroleum products was strong, growing about 5 percent from a year ago, according to the Energy Department. Gasoline demand was up just over 1 percent from last year.
Oil gained about 2 percent in morning trading, climbing to about $70.75 a barrel in New York shortly after the inventory report.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.22.
The projected upper bound is: 15.42.
The projected lower bound is: 14.13.
The projected closing price is: 14.78.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 5 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend(which appears to be the case with UNTD ST OIL FUND) the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 60.9998. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 50 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 141.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.180 at 14.780. Volume was 9% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 2% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.750 14.960 14.730 14.780 18,648,456
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.54 14.31 13.28
Volatility: 23 29 29
Volume: 14,125,441 19,448,800 19,220,444
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 11.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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