United States Oil (USO) prices rise for fourth day
Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Wednesday, with support from OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions overshadowing an industry report showing an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories last week.
Brent futures rose 35 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $69.72 a barrel by 0207 GMT, after earlier reaching $69.87, the highest since Nov. 12 and within touching distance of $70.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 22 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $62.80 cents a barrel, earlier rising to $62.90, the highest since Nov. 7.
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries hit a four-year low in March, a Reuters survey found earlier this week.
Oil production from Russia, which has joined OPEC in agreeing to supply cuts to prop up prices, fell to 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, but missed the country’s target under the deal.
Three of eight countries granted waivers by Washington to import oil from Iran have cut the imports to zero, a U.S. official said on Tuesday, adding that improved global oil market conditions would help reduce Iranian crude exports further.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.90.
The projected upper bound is: 13.54.
The projected lower bound is: 12.55.
The projected closing price is: 13.04.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 10 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 95.1691. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 72.92. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 66 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 229.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.190 at 13.010. Volume was 18% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.880 13.040 12.850 13.010 23,211,380
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.49 11.78 12.91
Volatility: 25 27 39
Volume: 19,681,416 21,240,424 25,304,460
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 0.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an overbought condition.
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