United States Oil (USO) prices reversed earlier gains
Earlier gains for oil futures on the back of increased tensions in the Middle East gave way to sizable declines Thursday, pushing U.S. and global benchmark prices to their lowest settlements in a month.
Prices reversed earlier gains, “reacting to the weakness in U.S. equities and over expectations of a production rise from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region, coming back into service after last week’s Hurricane Barry disrupted production,” Mihir Kapadia, chief executive officer of Sun Global Investments, told MarketWatch.
Energy markets analyst Marshall Steeves at IHS Markit attributed the downward turn to a “technical selloff” as the failed attempt at a rally “led to a retracement below $57 where sell stops were triggered” in West Texas Intermediate crude prices.
August WTI crude CLQ19, +1.48% lost $1.48, or 2.6%, to settle at $55.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling 1.5% on Wednesday.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 12.34.
The projected lower bound is: 10.74.
The projected closing price is: 11.54.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.1859. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -140.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.190 at 11.560. Volume was 53% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 33% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.790 11.800 11.370 11.560 38,600,528
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.12 11.97 12.19
Volatility: 36 43 41
Volume: 25,532,048 28,290,602 27,667,924
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 5.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.