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Monday, September 27, 2021

United States Oil (USO) Prices Reverse as U.S. Crude Production Sets Record High

United States Oil (USO) Prices Reverse as U.S. Crude Production Sets Record High

Oil prices reversed early gains on Wednesday as data showed U.S. crude production hit record highs last week, suggesting that drillers in the world’s largest producer were pumping at optimum levels amid the global demand destruction to energy caused by the novel coronavirus.

Crude production for the week ended Feb. 28 hit a record high of 13.1 million barrels per day versus the previous peak of 13 million bpd, according to latest weekly data from the Energy Information Administration.

West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude prices, was down 2 cents at $47.16 per barrel.by 11:37 AM ET (16:37 GMT). It earlier hit a session high of $48.41 on better-than-expected crude and fuel inventory numbers reported for last week by the EIA.

Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for crude, was down 21 cents at $51.65.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.09.

The projected upper bound is: 10.41.

The projected lower bound is: 9.19.

The projected closing price is: 9.80.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 54.1353. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.030 at 9.860. Volume was 98% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 46% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
10.105 10.130 9.760 9.860 46,349,748
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 10.27 11.49 11.67
Volatility: 50 35 41
Volume: 39,638,544 26,071,904 26,648,232

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 15.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods.

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