United States Oil (USO) prices plunge amid rising U.S. stockpiles

United States Oil (USO) prices plunge amid rising U.S. stockpiles

United States Oil (USO) prices plunge amid rising U.S. stockpiles

U.S. crude oil imports increased, while exports decreased during the week ending Aug. 2, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.15 million barrels per day (b/d) last week, up by 485,000 b/d from the previous week, while crude oil exports averaged about 1.87 million b/d, down by about 709,000 b/d from the previous week, according to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.92 million b/d, down by 1.21 million b/d year-on-year, while crude oil exports averaged about 2.57 million b/d, up by about 740,000 b/d year-on-year.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.88.

The projected upper bound is: 11.63.

The projected lower bound is: 10.00.

The projected closing price is: 10.81.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 4 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 18.1564. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.03. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 38 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -247.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.300 at 10.840. Volume was 100% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 2% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
10.810 10.890 10.490 10.840 54,104,180
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 11.53 11.64 11.92
Volatility: 45 45 42
Volume: 33,623,068 30,258,350 28,184,012

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 9.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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