United States Oil (USO) prices hover near 2019 highs
Oil prices hovered just below 2019 highs early on Tuesday, supported by ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC.
U.S. sanctions against oil producers Iran and Venezuela are also boosting crude prices, although traders say the market looks capped by rising American output.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down four cents at $59.05 per barrel at 0026 GMT, close to the 2019 high of $59.23 reached the previous day.
Weekly production and storage data is due to be published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
On the demand-side, there is concern that an economic slowdown as well as improving energy efficiency and the emergence of alternative transport fuels will erode oil consumption.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note that economic “risks are skewed to the downside” and that “we forecast global demand growth of 1.2 million bpd year-on-year in 2019 and 1.15 million bpd during 2020.”
The bank said it expected “Brent and WTI to average $70 per barrel and $59 per barrel respectively in 2019, and $65 per barrel and $60 per barrel in 2020.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.66.
The projected upper bound is: 12.90.
The projected lower bound is: 11.81.
The projected closing price is: 12.36.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 16 black candles for a net of 17 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.5263. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 55 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 154.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.110 at 12.310. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 62% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
12.230 12.370 12.205 12.310 18,439,464
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.98 11.42 12.96
Volatility: 17 31 39
Volume: 21,765,082 24,266,790 25,249,030
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 5.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.
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