United States Oil (USO) prices dropped by almost 1 percent

United States Oil (USO) prices dropped by almost 1 percent

United States Oil (USO) prices dropped by almost 1 percent

Oil prices dropped by almost 1 percent on Monday, with concerns recession could be looming outweighing supply disruptions from OPEC’s production cutbacks and from U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

Brent crude oil futures were at $66.56 per barrel at 0410 GMT, down 47 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $58.52 per barrel, down 52 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their previous settlement.

Both crude oil price benchmarks have slumped by more than 3 percent since last week hitting their highest since November 2018.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies such as Russia, together referred to as ‘OPEC+’, have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply this year to prop up markets, with OPEC’s de-facto leader seen to be pushing for a crude price of over $70 per barrel.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.79.

The projected upper bound is: 12.76.

The projected lower bound is: 11.75.

The projected closing price is: 12.25.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 11 white candles.

A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 4 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 67.6258. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 59 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.210 at 12.230. Volume was 25% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.300 12.320 12.110 12.230 22,739,882

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.21 11.57 12.94
Volatility: 22 28 39
Volume: 19,662,968 22,733,264 25,166,288

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 5.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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