United States Oil (USO) Price Rises on Drop in Inventories, Ignoring Big Increases in Gas, Diesel Stocks

United States Oil (USO) Price Rises on Drop in Inventories, Ignoring Big Increases in Gas, Diesel Stocks

United States Oil (USO) Price Rises on Drop in Inventories, Ignoring Big Increases in Gas, Diesel Stocks

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday morning showing that U.S. commercial crude inventories decreased by 5.9 million barrels last week, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 426.5 million barrels. The commercial crude inventory is about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Tuesday evening the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels in the week ending June 15. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels and distillate stockpiles increased by 750,000 barrels. For the same period, analysts expected crude inventories to decrease by about 1.25 million barrels. Gasoline inventories were seen up by 188,000 barrels and distillate inventories were expected to drop by 164,000 barrels.

U.S. crude oil exports rose by 344,000 barrels a day last week and U.S. production remained flat at 10.9 million barrels. Exports averaged 2.37 million barrels a day last week and have a cumulative daily average for the year of 1.75 million barrels a day, a 130% increase over the year-ago export total.

According to AAA, the current national average pump price per gallon of regular gasoline is $2.878, down about three cents from $2.909 a week ago and down nearly five cents per gallon compared with the month-ago price. Last year at this time, a gallon of regular gasoline cost $2.285 on average in the United States.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 13.86.

The projected lower bound is: 12.70.

The projected closing price is: 13.28.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.9680. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.140 at 13.280. Volume was 5% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 3% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
13.320 13.440 13.150 13.280 20,288,912

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.31 13.77 12.20
Volatility: 28 27 27
Volume: 17,657,396 19,070,984 18,221,550

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 8.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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