United States Oil (USO) price gains have been limited by concerns that an economic slowdown

United States Oil (USO) price gains have been limited by concerns that an economic slowdown

United States Oil (USO) price gains have been limited by concerns that an economic slowdown

US crude futures briefly hit a 2019 high on Friday but retreated along with benchmark Brent oil as worries about the global economy and robust US production put a brake on prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were down 12 US cents at $US58.49 per barrel, having hit their highest so far this year at $US58.95.

Brent crude futures were at $US66.85 per barrel, down 38 US cents from their last settlement, and below their 2019 peak of $US68.14 reached on Thursday.

US crude was on track to end the week 3.2 per cent higher, and Brent was up 1.7 per cent.

Oil price gains have been limited by concerns that an economic slowdown that has gripped large parts of Asia and Europe will dent growth in fuel demand.

But oil consumption has held up so far.

Crude oil use in China, the world’s biggest importer, in the first two months of 2019 rose 6.1 per cent from a year earlier to a record 12.68 million bpd, official data showed this week.

Goldman Sachs said growth in global demand for crude in January was “nearly 2.0 million barrels per day, with strength visible in both emerging markets and developed economies”.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.63.

The projected upper bound is: 12.79.

The projected lower bound is: 11.70.

The projected closing price is: 12.25.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 15 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 93.6363. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.46. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 54 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 136.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.020 at 12.200. Volume was 47% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 66% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
12.080 12.240 12.060 12.200 16,246,196

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.93 11.37 12.97
Volatility: 17 31 39
Volume: 22,124,498 24,542,382 25,277,436

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 5.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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